Let’s say you are a start-up company in the alternative energy sector, most would agree that you are in the right place at the right time. Next, let’s say that you have a new solar company that is about to take the market like an X-flare Sun Spot! Great, it’s all good, tax credits waiting for the buyers of your product and venture (vulture) capitalists and angle investors lining up to get in on the action. It’s all good right?
Well, sure it is if you get moving right away, get your product to market, sell a ton and have a quick exit strategy to pump and dump so to speak. No, I am not suggesting that you blatantly make forward looking projections in violation of SEC laws, rather I am saying that you’ll need to be ready to sell and get out of the business at a moment’s notice. Why you ask?
Simple, since these types of technologies are receiving boat loads of research funds, someone out there somewhere, maybe MIT or maybe someone in China, Japan, Germany or somewhere on this planet will come up with something better and get ready to take that to market to compete against you. Thus, they’ll leap frog your technology before your sales even reach maximum velocity and everyone will choose to wait to buy until the next newest solar tech hits the shelves.
Each new innovation is bettering the one before almost like Moore’s Law, those who install solar panels might get a fast ROI with your product in 10-years, but if they wait 2-years from now, then they can get a better ROI of 3-5 years. So, with this known, you have to be ready to get your product to market at the speed of light and then get out of dodge when someone else comes and does the same thing. Think on this.
** Cite: An Overview for Innovation 1986 by Stephen J. Kline and Nathan Rosenberg published in the National Academy of Sciences